Updated: 3 hours ago
This will be where the Red Eagle Politics Election Center will be updated. Unlike before when this page was used to solely aggregate and weigh polls, now I am unveiling new analysis that will change daily, with a new methodology.
RCP LV Aggregate + Undecided LV Approval Factor + Small Donations Advantage + Economic Indicators + Incumbency Advantage
States are decided by trends as well as polling errors/trajectories as well as the methodology above. See below for an explanation.
Last Updated: 10/30/2020
RCP LV AGGREGATE: Biden 51.3, Trump 43.5
With UAF: Biden 51.3, Trump 45.3
With Other Fundamentals: Biden 51.4, Trump 47.0
Lean/Likely State Analysis:
Colorado/New Mexico/Virginia/Maine: The first three states will not even be close. Maybe they end up being under 10 points, but Biden is likely to win all three of them. Maine-at-Large could end up being a sleeper, but we will have to wait and see.
Ohio/Iowa/ME-02: These three states are not going to be a problem for Donald Trump to win. Republicans in 2014/2016/2018 have severely overperformed polling, and the trend is in the Republicans favor there. Expect all three to be called about an hour or two after poll closings, and Trump will win them between 5 and 10 points, if not more.
Georgia and Texas: These states will likely be closer than they were in years past. Both states are trending in the blue column, and Democrats may pick up a house seat or two in each state. Demographic change from people moving from the north as well as south of the border to these states plays a factor as well as educational shifts in voting in regards to the suburbs. However, Trump's modest improvement with Hispanics and the fact he has a consistent polling lead in both states (mind you HRC led in Georgia for much of the 2016 cycle) shows he has the edge. Besides, the stars known as Beto and Stacey couldn't even pull it off in the midterms. This may be the last time these states go red for a while (depending on the 2024 nominee), but either way expect Trump to win both. Trump takes Texas by 4-6 and Georgia by 2-4 when it's all said and done.
Tilt State Analysis:
Florida: This is a state that is a must-win for Donald Trump. DeSantis and Scott pulled off upset victories there in 2018 by overperforming expected margins with Cuban voters in 2016 in Miami-Dade. Plenty of conventional metrics are expecting Trump to regress a bit in Duval and Pinellas counties while gaining some in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach. Trump will likely do better in the panhandle than Republicans did in 2018, and maybe a bit better in some of the I-4 corridor counties. Registrations look fairly good across the state, and the dems desperate push for felons voting will likely not even net them 50K votes (and that's according to Vox). Trump has the potential to win the state by around 3-4, but Florida is always a close state. The RCP average has tightened from Biden +8 to Biden +1 or so in Florida. PredictIt also has Trump ahead in Florida. I say Trump takes the state by more than he did last time, and it will likely be called around 10-11 PM for him.
VERDICT: Trump 50.1, Biden 47.9
North Carolina: This state has been relatively stagnant ever since its big leftward turn in 2008. Biden will not generate the African American or younger voter enthusiasm needed to win the state how Obama did, however 2020 is not 2008. Suburban trends will favor Biden in the state. However, Trump will likely get high turnout from rural, white North Carolinians and he will perform well enough in the exurbs to likely get the job done. 2018 saw Republicans do well in the state compared to the national average, and Trump's SCOTUS pick likely helps him in the state (which has a high evangelical population compared to other swing states). Polls show it a dead heat, the betting odds favor Trump, and the polling trajectory favors Trump in the state. Polls underestimated Republicans in 2016, and had Clinton leading through most of the cycle. I believe that Trump will pull the state off by a narrower margin than last time, and expect it to be called on Election Night.
VERDICT: Trump 50.4, Biden 47.8
Tossup State Analysis:
Nevada: I was debating over putting this state in the Lean D column or wondering if I should keep it in the tossup column. Many experts say it will be an easy win for Biden but I disagree. Trump's gains with Hispanics and the fact that Hispanic turnout will possibly even decline from 2016 is a very good sign for him in the state. The state also has a sizable white working class population unlike Arizona's, which has prevented Clark from moving left as Maricopa has. Plenty of the Californians moving there are actually on the right. Every Nevada county and congressional district swung right in 2016 from 2012, and the midterm exit polls showed Trump with a 48% approval rating. Even though Steve Sisolak has a decent approval rating, there are plenty of angry, anti-lockdown voters in the state who are energized on the right. Trump claims he leads there narrowly in his internal polls, but we have seen a lack of public polling data from Nevada and it seems like the data we do have shows Biden up. Polls in Nevada typically underestimate Democrats, and universal vote-by-mail will not be a good thing for Trump. I say Biden wins the state at the end of the day (Trump leads on Election Night most likely, due to mail-ins coming in later), but it votes to the right of the country and it will be on the table as a potential dark-horse flip.
VERDICT: Biden 50.0, Trump 47.6
Arizona: No Democrat has cracked 47% in Arizona since 1948. However, the state of Arizona is a state that has been moving to the left since 2012. Demographic change has played a factor, both in regards to immigration as well as many college-educated whites moving to the state from California as well as the North. Polls in Arizona do tend to overestimate Republicans, but for much of 2016 Hillary led the aggregate there (and Sinema was up big for much of 2018). It is unclear how much the SCOTUS helps Trump in the state, but it moved McSally up significantly during the Kavanaugh situation in 2018. Plenty of the polls we see now are very inconsistent. Half the polls have Trump up or within the margin of error, the other half have Trump down by a ridiculous margin (and usually have wonky crosstabs). The trend is real, and Arizona is definitely not immune. Biden can win the state, but either way it will be within 2% or so. Trump will probably have a net loss statewide from the 2016 margin, but third party voters from 2016 who voted for Romney in 2012 (yet Ducey in 2018) are substantial, and largely belong to the LDS/Mormon community. This can be evidenced by a huge turnout dropoff in Mesa/Gilbert. Trump will probably drop off a bit in Maricopa County. He will also probably get his base out in Yavapai County, Pinal County, and Navajo County at the same rate as 2016. He won't lose much in Tucson and Yuma if he actually gains with Hispanics, as many are anticipating. This state goes down the wire, and may take a day or two to be called. But with SCOTUS on the line, and much of Arizona's liberal base being Hispanics (who are more pro-life than other Democrats), I expect a very narrow Trump win, as of now.
VERDICT: Trump 49.8, Biden 48.8
Nebraska-02: We have very little data to go off in terms of being able to predict this district. Polling has looked relatively bleak in terms of Trump's support, but we have seen very little polling. It is a district that should vote to the right of the country by 3-4 points, and it is a very suburban district. It is expected to go for Don Bacon at the Congressional level, as it went to him in 2018, he has a big fundraising edge, and that Kara Eastman is more of a Bernie Dem than a Biden Dem. Ben Sasse should probably also win it by a massive margin, as he has maintained his distance from Trump and that he has a massive edge in fundraising against a nobody candidate (who was caught using racial slurs and sexually harassing a staffer). The disarray of Democrats in the state this year is probably a big boost to Trump. Especially because a lot of Romney-Other voters in the district arguably held him back in 2016. Either way, this one goes down the wire. Trump does have a massive, 3-1 fundraising edge in Omaha from individual small donations, so I say he does edge it out at the end (for now).
VERDICT: Trump 49.2, Biden 48.7
New Hampshire: This is a state with a very small number of polls to go off of, and a state where the polling average was not really that close for much of the 2016 cycle. There is a case to be made for a Trump victory in the state. College campuses that are crucial for energizing Democrats are closed, the yard sign game is important there (don't laugh this off, it's a true part of New Hampshire culture), Trump only lost the state by 3,000 votes (and possibly would have won it in a 2-way race), and there is an extremely popular Republican governor there (who unlike his acolytes in the region, actually supports Trump) who won in 2018 with ease. Biden's weak primary support may be an indicator that he isn't great at enthusing voters in the state. However, a drop-off with college whites may be Trump's Achilles heel in the state. Trump can win, and it will be close. Yet, right now, it's hard to make a case for it with such little polling data.
VERDICT: Biden 49.5, Trump 48.1
Michigan: Growing up, I never thought that I would live in a state that was competitive in Presidential Elections. Obama won the state by a landslide in 2008 and than beat Michigan native Romney by nearly 10 points. It seemed no different politically from a state like New Jersey. Yet, Trump came along and rebuilt the Reagan coalition and won many areas that have not gone Republican in decades. He also increased rural margins immensely. Trump did see a drop-off in Kent and Ottawa counties, but he also has room for improvement there as many formerly GOP defectors were Cruz voters in the primary who were not sold on Trump. James doing better than Trump relative to the state in 2018 proves that the trend isn't exactly set in stone for those counties. The rural counties will likely come out for Trump again in high numbers, if not higher than last time. Biden will look to improve in growing, liberal Oakland County as well as trying to cut into Trump's gains in the lower portion of Macomb County. I do expect black turnout to stagnate or decrease form 2016, if the primary was any indication. The race truly hinges on Trump being able to keep the coalition he built in 2016 while trying to gain traditionally Republican voters who may have voted third party in Western Michigan. Turnout is everything here. Trump leads in Trafalgar (nailed 2016 and 2018) in the state, and trails in plenty of polls by a similar margin to 2016. Michigan is truly a hard state to poll (polls were off here by more in 2012 than 2016, ironically enough), and we will have to see if Trump is able to prevail based off turnout. This is a potential late-breaking race at the Presidential and Senate level. I could see it go either way.
VERDICT: Trump 48.7, Biden 48.5
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is a state that flipped out of nowhere in 2016. Many polls did not anticipate a Trump win there, yet when you look at demography, one could question why the state is even remotely competitive. Trump lost ground in the Milwaukee suburbs, but if the midterms are any indication, Trump will improve there, a la how I expect him to improve in traditionally Republican Ottawa County, Michigan. I also expect a modest improvement in Racine County, as well as possibly Kenosha. However, he needs to limit losses in the rural part of the state as well as the Fox Cities/Green Bay region if he wants to win. It's sort of a balancing act for him. Polls now look bleak for him, as he is down by around 6-7. The polls were off by 7 in 2016, but they were dead-on in 2018. However, Trump was not on the ballot. We will see if he is able to work his magic again to pull it off. But, right now, it's going down the wire. It is a late-breaking state historically, with many voters that are hard to poll that do not decide until late. These voters put Obama over the top in 2012, and put Trump over the top in 2016. I expect Trump to get them home again.
VERDICT: Trump 48.7, Biden 47.6
Pennsylvania: The Keystone State is a bigger prize than it seems, as there are 20 Electoral Votes at stake, making it the fifth-biggest prize on the map. Trump won the state unexpectedly in 2016, as it was the white whale for many years for Republicans. Trump's working class appeal allowed him to make inroads with rural voters who have voted Democrat for generations. Democrats had very high turnout in the state, but it was not enough to buck the inevitable trend. Trump did lose ground in some Philly suburbs, though. This is a state that comes down to turnout, yet again. Trump's base may be enough if they turn out high enough. Trump needs to hammer Biden's energy policies to do so. Biden's hometown effect in Scranton will likely be minimized, though he does appear to have appeal to the Philly suburbs close to the state of Delaware. I do believe that this state goes down the wire, yet polls and primary turnout data overwhelmingly favor Dems. However, Republicans are gaining with registrations. Biden is treating this state as a must-win, however, and I do think he will win narrowly at the moment, though that could change.
VERDICT: Biden 49.0, Trump 48.4
Minnesota: This is a state where Republicans have not won since 1972. However, demographically speaking, it seems like the perfect state for a Republican. It is heavily rural, has an electorate that is close to 90% white, and moved to the right by 6% or so in 2016. The rural part of the state is moving right, but suburban trends seem to work against the President. Maybe someone like Tucker Carlson could win the state big-time in 2024, but right now I say Trump probably loses. The civil unrest, however, does not play to the Democrats' advantage here, and neither do potential rapid iron range trends, so it could be a surprise flip. But for now, we will keep it blue. VERDICT: Biden 49.2, Trump 47.5
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