Democrats Appear to Be in Trouble in the Sun Belt According to Early Voting Statistics

Democrats everywhere have begun to panic about the 2020 Election results. Instead of seeing massive vote-by-mail enthusiasm that they expected to see (especially given the fact that most of their efforts have been concentrated in regards to vote-by-mail), their leads are not as insurmountable as they would like to believe, in fact, they are very surmountable. This holds true in the states of Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona, which are three states the Biden campaign would like to win (and they are also three must-win states for President Trump).

It is important that we start off with the state of Florida. Democrats lead by roughly 450,000 votes in the state of Florida's early vote. In-person early voting was underway yesterday, and Republicans are beating Democrats in the in-person early vote so far, which has been a big disillusionment for Democrats. Today, it seems like Republicans are headed for a second straight day of making gains. Miami-Dade county reported late, and Republicans did extremely well in terms of their margins of in-person voting there compared to years past, which really makes things tough for Democrats in the state, especially as many Republican counties have not even started to conduct early voting yet. Democrats will need a 700,000 vote lead or so (their words, not mine) going into Election Day to have a chance, and they may need even more than that to actually have a shot to win the state (depending on how many people vote on Election Day). Trump also is overperforming past cycles in The Villages, which Dems have sought to make gains with Seniors in (but that does not seem to be materializing). Trump appears to be in great shape in what is a must-win state for him, especially as many of Trump's voters will vote on Election Day.

In the state of North Carolina, Democrats maintain a 320,000 vote lead in the early vote so far. They are overperforming their 2016 percentages by just 4%, however, and that is in the registered party TargetSmart model. In the modeled party model, which tries to allocate independents properly based off voting history (remember, this is dangerous to play with due to potential inaccuracy), Republicans are overperforming their 2016 numbers by 4%, and the lead cuts to roughly 260,000. That will be extremely easy for Trump to make up if he can get his base out on Election Day to vote in the state of North Carolina.

In the state of Arizona, most early votes are coming in from Maricopa County, a potential bellwether for the state this cycle. Republicans are trailing the Democrats by just 10% (74,000 votes or so), and in the modeled party model Republicans trail by half that raw vote margin. That is not bad for Republicans either in a county Trump would like to win. If Trump wins Maricopa at all, he is nearly a shoo-in to win the state of Arizona, as his margins in Pinal and Yavapai will offset the Democrats' margins in Pima and Coconino. Trump was in the state yesterday attempting to rally his base, and it is a state he believes he will win narrowly.

So, there you have it. Republicans are overperforming expectations, and many Democrats are just looking to hold the rust belt states at this point due to abysmal data. Biden could still win these states, but it would take an election day turnout effort not reflected in the current polling. We will see.


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