Mike Garcia Wins CA-25 Special Election in an Upset

Updated: May 16, 2020

Last night, Republicans not only beat the Democrats in turnout in the key Nebraska's Second District. They also did not only win an open seat in rural Wisconsin by 15 points. They did the unthinkable, and flipped a blue seat red in the Golden State for the first time since 1998, and won a seat in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area for the first time since 2016. Garcia defeated professional Karen Christy Smith in the race to replace the disgraced degenerate Katie Hill. The results are not yet final, and as the in-person votes are counted, Garcia's lead is expected to narrow. In the meantime, he currently leads by 12 percentage points, and by 17,650 raw votes with nearly 150,000 votes counted. For reference, there were 261,000 votes totaled in 2016 and 245,000 in 2018. Christy Smith has conceded the race, and the betting odds expect Garcia to win by at least 6 percent. This is huge because it is seen as a bellwether seat for the nation. It also shows that the enthusiasm is on the Republican side, not the Democrat side, even in California. It also confirms that Latino and young voters are disillusioned by the Democrat Party, just like they were in the primaries (as Latino and young voters were far less likely to return ballots than older and White voters). The race is up for grabs again in November, but Garcia will have more national profile this time around as he will be the incumbent. I do expect the race in November to be closer, and Joe Biden probably will win the district. Hillary Clinton won it by 7, Gavin Newsom won it by 3, and Katie Hill won it by 9, so it will be a challenge for Garcia to hold it. Yet, with enthusiasm so low for Biden and Company, I would say Garcia should be able to buck the trend and hold his seat. Hopefully this is the first of several flips for Republicans in the state, as many contested Orange County seats will be up for grabs. Republicans also won a nearby State Senate seat by a 11.8 percent margin. Trump won the district by just two points for reference.


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