Republicans Overperform Vastly in Louisiana's Fifth Congressional District's Special Election

But there may be a catch.


On Saturday, not a lot of people were paying attention to the first major special elections since the 2020 (2021?) Georgia Runoff that took place in January. So much so to the fact that the number one elections expert in the country (me) did not even know the elections were taking place on the night that it did. There were two elections that night, one in the second district of Louisiana to replace Rep. Cedric Richmond (who just joined the Biden admin) and one seat to replace the now-deceased Rep.-Elect Luke Letlow in the fifth district.


Donald Trump won the fifth district by a result of 64%-34% over both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. However, the Republicans combined for a 73%-27% victory in this special election, a net gain of 16% on the final margin. Republicans were energized to get out and vote, and it showed. This election draws parallels to the KS-04 special election in early 2017 for Dems, where they outperformed their 2016 margin by roughly 24 percent.


As good as this sounds for energy being on the Republican side, I would not read into it too much. I personally do not believe that the sympathy vote helped Julia Letlow get crossover support in such a divided climate, but Republican turnout may have been higher because of it. Also, the Dems outperformed Biden by 10 points in the LA-02 primary, although a lot more Dems were running against each other, pouring plenty of money in the race. Still, turnout in LA-05 topped LA-02, which is a good sign for the GOP. Either way, I think we will have to wait for the TX-06 and NM-01 elections later this spring to see any true indication about 2022 that will be a little more clear.

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