The Republican Case for Vote-By-Mail

President Trump has not been shy in terms of denouncing universal vote-by-mail as a problematic system that is ripe with inconsistency and potential fraud. The mainstream media has not been afraid to push back on this notion, either. The answer probably lies in the middle, and there are pros and cons to whichever side this helps. That is not what I will be discussing here. In fact, I am not a fan of voting by mail. I actually advise conservatives to not do so. I also think that it is a disgrace that we will not be able to know the winner in some states on Election Night. However, Trump's attacks on mail-in voting will most likely lead to a surge of Democrats using them, and a higher number of Republicans voting in-person. The Congressional primary data we have seen so far in Florida confirms this.

We know that mail-in ballots tend to have a high rejection rate. There is always some problem with the postage or whatever that will get them thrown out. Some experts predict up to an 8 percent rejection rate. If that is the case, then this will happen with expected use by party:

As we can see, this would net Trump a net benefit of 20,000 votes in a swing state with a million voters. That could easily be upwards of 80,000 votes in Michigan, or well over 100,000 in places like Pennsylvania and Florida. This is over a 2% increase to his column. Also, illegal aliens will be less likely to send them in due to a fear of getting caught. That is why so many people believe Mike Garcia did far better than expected in California's 25th Special Congressional Election. I do not trust the mail-in system that much, but if we vote in person while they do not, we can outvote the left who will be clinging to this process. Trump yet is doing another genius move, and this 4D chess could be the determining factor in his victory,


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