Why Trump Will Narrow Biden's Polling Lead

Joe Biden is up in the polls, and that is a fact that nobody in their right mind is denying. However, polling can be volatile this far out and there are over 100 days until Election Day. There is a lot of things that can happen and there are a lot of things that will happen. Currently, Trump is down in the RCP average by 8.7%. In the 538 average, it is 8%. On the REP average, it is just a 6.1% lead for Joe Biden (4.6% when you exclude outlier polls).

We all know that polls are not NOTHING, but they sure as hell aren't EVERYTHING either. We know that in places like Missouri, Arkansas, Utah, and Alaska, polls having Trump up by a small margin should be thrown in the garbage completely. History proves my point (check out my article about the perils of early polling if you don't believe me). Polling in swing states tends to be volatile as well. I doubt Trump is down 7 in Florida, at least not with simultaneously losing North Carolina by just 1.6 in the process). However, polls will probably be more accurate leading up to the election day as they will reflect events that happen at that point, reflect new registration data, and will be more likely to have a likely voter screen. Those three things will benefit Republicans, however, the polling error this far out will probably be much wider than 2016. In fact, it may be the widest gap since the early 1990's. This is because of class divide and non-response bias, per expert political gambler Robert Barnes. This makes sense as uneducated individuals (the growing base of the Republican party) are far less likely to answer polls, and many pollsters in certain key states do fail to weigh by education. This is why Wisconsin was so abysmal in 2016 when it came to polling. The virus and other unique circumstances do not help much either to help the pollsters with accuracy.

There are also many events that will happen between now and Election Day. Biden cannot seem to generate views for his rallies on social media. His rallies will get a thousand combined views whereas Trump will get 7 million on some occasions. This means that Trump could see a bigger post-virtual convention bump than Biden. Trump also has proven to be effective in debates, even though he lost them in 2016 (per the polling). After the third debate, his poll numbers rose significantly (yes, even before the Comey thing). Trump will most certainly beat Biden, who was rarely attacked in the primary and lacks the mental sharpness of Hillary Clinton. Biden fell massively in the primary when he debated, and only began to rise in the polls when his opponents attacked Bloomberg instead of him. Biden also was rarely attacked, but when he was attacked by Kamala, that is when he began to fall massively. He likely would have been the Jeb Bush of 2020 if he and the DNC did not make several other establishmentarian contenders drop out before Super Tuesday. Trump will likely beat him in the debates and rise a few points off of them alone.

Trump also has been staying on message for the past week. He has been much more presidential, and has taken more initiative in regards to the coronavirus. The American public, as well as people in the middle, will appreciate this and his approval should bump up to the mid-40s within a month or so. I believe this is because of his new campaign manager, who appears to have things much more together than Parscale did. His attack ads and messaging appear to be more effective, and he also plans to focus on swing states that will be contested instead of reaches like Oregon or New Mexico. He seems more focused on anti-Marxism, law and order, and mentioning the return of the government to the people. This newfound focus on winning issues as well as him being more presidential will help him win undecided voters for sure.

Lastly, Trump will narrow the gap because Biden's ideology and policy is too far left for the general public. He may have been a moderate (or even a conservative) years ago, but this is not 1978e, let alone 1994 or even 2008. Biden is not far left economically on many issues compared to most Democrats, but he is on many social and environmental issues. Technically, he is running the furthest left general election campaign in modern history. He wants the government to force taxpayers to pay for late term abortions. He wants to defund the police, which he has deemed "the enemy." He wants to end fossil fuel use in the near future. He wants to give amnesty to all illegals and decriminalize illegal border crossings. These are not ideas that will resonate with the general public, especially in swing states. Biden rides high in the polls because many people do not know this is true. Many see him as a "centrist" Democrat (compared to his primary mates maybe, but that's not saying a whole lot) or a generic Democrat. If Trump loses, he will deserve to lose, because in that case he would have failed to define Biden for who he truly is: a senile puppet whose control will be fought for by the globalists and the far-left.


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