First of all, I would like to give credit to David Watereddownman of 346 for giving me the idea. The Election Mafia is a terrible group of condescending losers, but we can all agree that they are a stopped clock that will occasionally come up with something cool that pertains to the election. For the 2016 edition on this, read here: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youll-likely-be-reading-one-of-these-5-articles-the-day-after-the-election/.
This helped gague the possibilities for me when I was predicting the 2016 election. Ironically enough, prediction 5 was my actual final prediction. It was not because of the article, though, and instead was based off of using the Swing-O-Matic as well as analyzing trends and polls. But without further ado, it's time to get started.
SCENARIO 1: The Convincing Biden Victory
In a rebuke of Donald Trump's presidency, the Election Mafia and all of the Democrats across the nation were proven right as Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump convincingly. Not only was the election called on election night, but Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by a 350-188 Electoral Vote margin. Biden also won the popular vote 52.5-43.2, even more than the polling aggregate expected. Biden won college, educated-white voters by 13 points, and minority turnout did not dip from 2016, and Donald Trump did not make any inroads with Black or Latino voters. Donald Trump also failed to generate the same support he received from non-college educated whites four years prior, carrying them by 10 points less than he did in 2016. Donald Trump lost every state he flipped from blue to red four years ago, except his narrow wins in Iowa, Ohio, and Maine's Second District. He lost Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida, and Nebraska's Second District; On top of that, he also became the first Republican since the 1990's to lose Georgia and Arizona. Texas went to Trump by less than two points, leading many people to believe it would be a tossup moving forward at a minimum. Many liberal pundits described what they saw as "nightmare over," as many conservatives began to feel defeated. Donald Trump conceded, as many sources near the President told him that Biden's margins were fraud-proof in all of the key states. Down ballot, the Republicans only saw a Senate pickup in Alabama, as they lost Maine, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, and even Iowa. Lindsey Graham, Steve Daines, Dan Sullivan, and Roger Marshall held on by the skin of their teeth, leaving the Democrats with a 51-49 lead in the Senate. Democrats also gained five net seats in the house, keeping Nancy Pelosi as speaker for another two years.
SCENARIO 2: Modest Biden Majority
Last night, Joe Biden was elected America's 46th president, making Donald Trump the first sitting incumbent to lose re-election since George H.W. Bush in 1992. It was not until mail-in ballots in key states put him over the top early on November 4th, but Biden defeated Trump by a 290-248 margin. Donald Trump maintained all of the states he won in 2016, with the exception of Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Nebraska's Second District (which all went for Biden by under 3%). Biden also won the popular vote 51.9-45.3, relatively in line with what most polling expected. Trump made modest gains with minority voters (gaining 1% with Blacks and 2% with Hispanics), but lost white college graduates by 9% and underperformed his 2016 total by 5% with non-college whites. Trump's base was not enough to get him over the top, and issues such as healthcare and the virus are what seemed to plague his presidency. Trump contested the results, but there was not a clear amount of proven fraud for him to make a case that would go all the way to the Supreme Court. In the Senate, Republicans saw losses in North Carolina, Maine, Arizona, and Colorado, yet saw a pickup in Alabama. Kamala Harris would be set to break the tie in the house, yet Republicans promptly started to try and get Joe Manchin to switch parties. The Republicans gained four net seats in the house, however, such a narrow Senate majority for the Democrats lead many to speculate if Biden will struggle to pass legislation.
SCENARIO 3: The 2016 Redux
Donald Trump did it again. Last night, Donald Trump was re-elected president, at a time when many polls and pundits thought that it would be impossible. It became clear around 3:00 AM that Biden would not have enough mail-in ballots to surmount Trump's election day margin in key rust belt states needed to win the election. Trump recaptured every state he won in 2016, adding New Hampshire to his column, leading him to a 310-228 victory. Biden, however, won the popular vote by a wider margin than Hillary Clinton did (50.9-47.1), leading many Democrats to continue calling for the abolition of the electoral college. Donald Trump's victory was marked by maintaining his coalition, as white-working class turnout increased from 2016 and they broke for him by 36 points. Trump also did not lose as much ground among white college graduates as expected, and he lost them by just 7 points. Trump also got 33 percent of Hispanics and 10 percent of Black voters, proving that his inroads may have been worth it in those communities. In the Senate, Republicans maintained every seat, except for Colorado and Arizona, flipped Alabama and Michigan, as Susan Collins and Sara Gideon's race will head to a recount. Republicans also gained ten net seats in the house, putting Nancy Pelosi's future as speaker into question. Red Eagle Politics called 48/50 states correctly two cycles in a row, and even several members of the Election Mafia were forced to send Tweets of apology and congratulations.
It is possible that a scenario in between will occur, as well. I could see Donald Trump winning Arizona and Wisconsin, losing Pennsylvania and Nebraska-02, and we end up having a 269-269 tie settled in the house. Trump also may shock the world even more, and win 328-210 for all we know. A lot can happen, and this article breaks down the three most likely scenarios.